A speculative map of the human cost of an earthquake that could occur in Istanbul, Turkey.

Discussions of earthquake risk often revolve around damage to buildings and structures, and predictions of loss are often made in terms of monetary value.

This map is an attempt to bring the discussion towards the human aspect of earthquake preparedness. It replaces calculations of structural integrity and property values and instead gauging the damage an earthquake would cause through how prepared the community would be for it.

To make this prediction, the map takes into account the socioeconomic status index of each municipality in Istanbul. Socioeconomic status is taken here as a signifier of earthquake preparedness. As one study in the US has shown that communities of lower socioeconomic status are less likely to be able to take measures against disasters before or after the fact— most importantly because they are less likely to be able to afford measures such as earthquake insurance, earthquake safety audits, or renovations.

In an attempt to get a more accurate reading of socioeconomic status in the city on a granular basis, the socioeconomic status data has been weighted by another index of wealth disparity per municipality in Istanbul.

While earthquake safety regulations are present in Turkey, their implementation is spotty on the government/private side, forcing many to take their own initiative towards earthquake safety. This map provides insight not only into which municipalities of Istanbul would most benefit from such initiatives, but also towards which municipalities would be least able to undertake them alone.

Designed and developed by Ege Uz, for PGTE 5600 Design for this Century, at Parsons School of Design.

PDF of research paper and bibliography.